3260 Thoughts on Egypt

Saturday, February 12, 2011

I tried to be good, but I got bored.

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They're nowhere near finished yet.

I've been reading internet reports, and listening to talk and news radio, and there seem to be conflicting opinions on the relationship between the protesters and the military. Some commentators think the military is with the protesters, holding the same opinions as the protesters. Others see something more sinister going on.

I'm with the latter camp. I'm worried.

Mubarak gained control through a military coup. The country has a constitution and legislature, and all that, but has been under "emergency", i.e. martial, law for the past 30 years. Mubarak had been able to maintain control all that time through the support of the military commanders, the top brass, with whom he has been sharing the largess, and who actually run the country. They've been very well paid to stay loyal. (The rank and file soldiers did not share in the booty, so they were not as supportive of Mubarak, and that's why they were liked and appreciated by the protesters.)

However, I think there was more going on than shows on the surface. I think the top military commanders decided that protests served their own purposes. Mubarak was starting to loosen some of the military's grip on the country. No military man would like that. And if they could get rid of Mubarak, that eliminates one major level in the distribution of booty. Yummy. More for themselves.

They're still in charge. They are now running the show. I do not for one second believe that they will give up power from some burst of social conscience or respect for the constitution or fear of another protest display.

The second thing that worries me is that the protesters wanted Mubarak gone immediately, because having started the protests, the organizers were now in mortal danger. If Mubarak were allowed to hang around until September, that would give him time to run a (mis)information campaign, and to "mysteriously disappear" all the organizers, so that when the September elections had him win by a huge margin, even as a write-in, those with the courage to protest would be all gone, and the rest would be too afraid. The organizers and anyone else with a known name or face would be dead men walking as soon as the square emptied.

So, Mubarak is gone immediately. But persons who perhaps want to assume Mubarak's power are not only still there, they are in charge of everything. They had their own reasons for getting rid of him. And if they want to ensure that the election goes the way they want, and that no one objects publicly, organizers might start disappearing. All it will take is a few "accidents" befalling second-level organizers to get the message across. And the next set of protests might not be met with such a blasé attitude from the military.

Egypt still has some storms to weather.
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